Saturday, June 28, 2008
Thanks to Andrew Sullivan for this. Oil prices will rise to $200 a barrel by 2010. Americans will be paying European prices - $7 a gallon. Jeff Rubin forecasts 10 million few vehicles on the roads and a massive drop in miles driven. The poor won't have cars at all. This being only two years away, there will be no time for new public transport infrastructure to be built and new fuel technologies will not make much of a difference - the latest American hybrids are not fuel efficient by world standards. Rubin's $200 a barrel will be wrong, of course, but significantly higher oil prices in the long term seem likely.
Flying from Los Angeles to St George I saw nothing but desert, the few towns - settlements would be more accurate - being connected by just one road. If American mobility is to decrease rapidly, then the isolation of these places will be intensified. I spoke to one local woman about what it is like to be surrounded by endless desert. 'We don't think about it,' she said. They will very soon. This is about to become a more intractable land.
Posted by Bryan Appleyard at 12:19 pm